The Death of Human-Driven Automobiles

[owequitit]

We're being told autonomy is the next big evolution of the automobile (next to electrification) and every automaker is starting to pour sizable sums into the R&D of this technology.

The older I get, the more cynical I am becoming. I am starting to be a technology skeptic, predicting that our interconnectedness is more a liability than an asset.

Autonomy is one of these technological ideas that has me conflicted. I am a car enthusiast to the bone and love driving my moderately powerful MANUAL car, but I know I won't be able to do this forever and autonomy has the potential to give renewed freedom to individuals that can't or probably shouldn't be driving. From the disabled to the elderly (and even our children), autonomy can be a life changing technology.

How much of this technology are you willing to embrace?

What criteria do you want achieved before you'll trust an autonomous vehicle?

What are your thoughts?

Despite the technical hyperbole, we are nowhere near Level 5 autonomy in cars.

Simple as that. There are simply billions of random computing variables that have to be solved, and they are constantly changing. Multiply that by the numbers of cars on the road and good luck.

Most people are dumb and think airplanes fly themselves, which is patently untrue. Even in the limited conditions when they can, they are heavily supervised, require human participation and a manual over-ride.

It's about as hyperbolic as moon colonies were in the 1960's.

[GhostAccord]

Personally I find discussions about autonomous cars fatiguing because people who don't like it exaggerate like crazy. Did someone here really say not being able to drive would take away all they have to live for? Come on man we are just talking cars here. Most people's interaction with cars is awful.... sitting in traffic, waiting at the dealership for a loaner or a bill; haggling over prices. It's a PITA. The CHOICE of not having to own or drive a car while still being able to get around would be a huge benefit for most people.

That tech is already here, it's called public transit or take a cab/Uber.

I really don't care to waste my time debating the pros and cons of autonomous vehicles. Why, because as long as I can drive, I know that I will NEVER own one. Do I care if other people own them, nope, go right ahead, work or sleep your life away while a computer drives you to and from places. I will continue to enjoy my driving experience

[AccordWarrior]

I really don't care to waste my time debating the pros and cons of autonomous vehicles. Why, because as long as I can drive, I know that I will NEVER own one. Do I care if other people own them, nope, go right ahead, work or sleep your life away while a computer drives you to and from places. I will continue to enjoy my driving experience

x all the numbers.

Nothing about autonomous vehicles interest me. I don't even read articles about them. They have their place and that's great, but I have no interest in them.

I'm sad enough that the manual transmission is dying a prolonged death (I understand the reasons why, but I don't have to be happy about it). I think what is more likely to happen prior to the adoption of widespread autonomous vehicles is hybrid / electric vehicles becoming the norm.

My only hope is that we don't see some sort of ban on non-autonomous / hybrid vehicles to the point that owning a standard gasoline powered vehicle is unrealistic / unfeasible.

[CyborgGT]

Worth a read:

http://www.speedhunters.com/2018/05/...g-enthusiasts/

[owequitit]

Worth a read:

http://www.speedhunters.com/2018/05/...g-enthusiasts/

It doesn't consider that for real L5 autonomous cars to work safely (and more importantly, for the public to buy into it) all other forms of driving would probably have to be outlawed. After all, you can't have a bunch of miscreants disturbing the safety and efficiency of the masses.

[CyborgGT]

"you can't have a bunch of miscreants disturbing the safety and efficiency of the masses"

Isn't that how it is now, though? If you get caught driving unsafely, you get ticketed. Cops aren't going to stop patrolling the streets.

[Fleetw00d]

I don't think I'll trust a self driving car unless there is a steel rail in the middle of a one way road, it only goes 5 mph, and has huge springy bumpers - think amusement park ride. Even there, you have to control the accelerator.

[owequitit]

"you can't have a bunch of miscreants disturbing the safety and efficiency of the masses"

Isn't that how it is now, though? If you get caught driving unsafely, you get ticketed. Cops aren't going to stop patrolling the streets.

No, because the reality is that for L5 automation to work for cars, the number of variables will have to be managed. That means no random chaos, I.E. the lawmakers and supporters will push to ban all other forms of driving (i.e. you won't be allowed to drive yourself).

Think networks of cars traveling around under the control of a central computer system or central control point of some sort.

[CyborgGT]

That reminds me of how it was brought up in the comments of that article that it could be managed kind of like Uber, just without a human driving. The companies sell rides, not vehicles. Which I don't think would work, what with cars being status symbols. People want their freedom, and it needs to have a fancy badge on the front. But then I suppose that could just support the existence of 'premium' brand rides.

[owequitit]

That reminds me of how it was brought up in the comments of that article that it could be managed kind of like Uber, just without a human driving. The companies sell rides, not vehicles. Which I don't think would work, what with cars being status symbols. People want their freedom, and it needs to have a fancy badge on the front. But then I suppose that could just support the existence of 'premium' brand rides.

Younger generations are increasingly eschewing freedom for central control. They also don't seem to put the same priority on "freedom of driving" or the automobile as previous generations. Perhaps it is video games, or perhaps it is that they have adapted because they can't afford cars.

But IMO, 1 or 2 generations from now, they won't have any problem getting into a public pod and going for a guided ride to wherever they are going.

[gloryaccordy]

It doesn't consider that for real L5 autonomous cars to work safely (and more importantly, for the public to buy into it) all other forms of driving would probably have to be outlawed. After all, you can't have a bunch of miscreants disturbing the safety and efficiency of the masses.

Again more exaggeration. By this logic human driven cars would have to be outlawed before we'd know that autonomous cars worked. How would you see that going over? Realistically + logistically autonomous cars will have to coexist with human drivers for quite some time before such a ban could even be considered feasible, and in any case there is enough money to be made with human driven cars that the auto industry wouldn't let that happen.

Autonomous cars will probably make ownership of cars a thing of the past for most people, turning mobility into a commodity for most and eroding a lot of the profit for the auto industry.... so high margin segments associated with human drivers like performance cars and pickup trucks will definitely remain. The aftermarket also highly depends on people who own and drive their cars so they will have a dog in the fight too. Not to mention the millions of voters and taxpayers who want to continue driving. This chicken little woe is me view of autonomous cars is tiring.

[gloryaccordy]

That reminds me of how it was brought up in the comments of that article that it could be managed kind of like Uber, just without a human driving. The companies sell rides, not vehicles. Which I don't think would work, what with cars being status symbols. People want their freedom, and it needs to have a fancy badge on the front. But then I suppose that could just support the existence of 'premium' brand rides.

Most of the top selling cars are not being bought as status symbols and don't have fancy badges on the front.

[Size9zombie]

I don't believe autonomous cars will become a real thing. Much like how flying cars won't exist because you can't emergency-stop in mid-air.

Autonomous cars are a real thing at this moment, at the the CES show in Vegas in Jan. of this year they unveiled the first production vehicles of this sort. They are focusing on cabs and such right now. All the cabs that took people to and from the show were autonomous. Flying cars DO exist, they are just very expensive and made to order at the moment. They will not be a mainstream thing in our lifetime i don't think. They won't/can't force everyone in America or globally to convert their cars. The cost would be astronomical.

[CyborgGT]

Glory, those that don't would buy them if they could afford them. If all anyone cared about was an affordable way to get around, the world would be full of one-owner 300k+ mile cars, and America would have better public transportation. There's a reason people with the means keep up within the latest two or three generations of a car, no matter its position in the market. It's new, and gives the impression that you're doing well.

And zombie, I know several autonomous cars and 'flying' cars already exist. I meant "real thing" as in being available to, and more importantly adopted by, the masses. Gimmicks aren't a "real thing" in my intended context.

[Size9zombie]

We have all already seen how The Tesla has failed, causing fatal wrecks. No way in hell I would let a car drive for me. I have way too much fun driving anyway. I drive an hr one way to work, and for that one hr, (2 hr a day) I get to enjoy ripping through the curves, or just taking it easy and enjoying some tunes. Either way I control where I go, and what manner I get there.

I feel for all of you that have to drive boring, traffic filled routes every day. I live out in the country where the roads resemble that old multi colored pipe screen saver from way back in the day. I really don't see this being a major thing except for in big cities.