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    The Death of Human-Driven Automobiles

    We're being told autonomy is the next big evolution of the automobile (next to electrification) and every automaker is starting to pour sizable sums into the R&D of this technology.

    The older I get, the more cynical I am becoming. I am starting to be a technology skeptic, predicting that our interconnectedness is more a liability than an asset.

    Autonomy is one of these technological ideas that has me conflicted. I am a car enthusiast to the bone and love driving my moderately powerful MANUAL car, but I know I won't be able to do this forever and autonomy has the potential to give renewed freedom to individuals that can't or probably shouldn't be driving. From the disabled to the elderly (and even our children), autonomy can be a life changing technology.

    How much of this technology are you willing to embrace?

    What criteria do you want achieved before you'll trust an autonomous vehicle?

    What are your thoughts?
    14 Ford Focus ST - stock(ish) - E30 Tune + Green Filter =

    #2
    I work in IT. It's all about security. Honestly I can't trust any of these automated systems with my well being. All it takes is one hacker (CIA, FBI, NSA, Michael Hastings?!?) and your ass is grass, with absolutely no control over it yourself. I'm going to be dead before they remove the steering wheel from my hands.
    MRT: 1993 Honda Accord SE Coupe (Lola)

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      #3
      ^ Hacking cars and overriding controls is already a thing. Did you see the story run on the Jeep? I think it was Chrysler themselves that hired hackers to try to break into their system. ANYTHING that can receive a wireless signal is at risk.

      I was just watching an episode of 'old' Top Gear last night and the autonomy subject came up: what happens when the car has to decide that possibly killing the passenger(s) is best? Such as when you're about to be in an accident the car can't possibly stop for, and the only options are to either hit the other car or to swerve, say, onto the sidewalk and run over pedestrians. I doubt cars could become smart enough to acknowledge things like that, but at the very least they would have to be programmed not to swerve, into who knows what. It's often enough that "who knows what" is nothing at all, in which case the human would have been better off in control.

      I don't believe autonomous cars will become a real thing. Much like how flying cars won't exist because you can't emergency-stop in mid-air. Unless the autonomous car is on rails, it doesn't seem realistic to me. Maybe if every single vehicle on the road was autonomous, and they communicated with things like traffic lights, emergency vehicles, and each other, so every eventuality could more likely be predicted. Remember that America is a suing nation.
      Last edited by CyborgGT; 01-16-2018, 03:11 PM.

      Accord Aero-R

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        #4
        Nope. I trust a computer to give me proper fuel mixtures, not to steer. Set up Lyft and Uber services for those who can’t or shouldn’t be driving. It’ll give them a nice social interaction, and it’ll give them a healthy ritual they can look forward to.

        The only way I’ll trust that technology is if it had a 100% success rate. Even then, I’d like a manual override. I’ll embrace the technology side of it, not the driver replacement part.

        I really think this should be more focused on public transportation.

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          #5
          Automation will kill enthusiasm for driving in my opinion. I understand that to most driving is just a means of getting from point A to point B but once (if) this complete automation takes over then really what is the point of living anymore if you can't enjoy doing things for yourself?

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            #6
            If they could automate the signal light I'd be thankful. I did enjoy the Audi youtube video of the car stuck in traffic driving at 10mph, brake on it's own etc. I also think such technology would be great on remote divided highways.

            But my beef is with vehicle feedback. If you have to drive in snow you grow up realizing that the feedback you get through the wheel is gold. I find the more hi-tech we go the further we get from real feedback of a vehicle. Electronic throttle, steering, adaptive power steering, etc. Yet the roads and conditions don't change.

            I think the other bad thing is the IT Tech in cars. Pretty soon all cars will instantly upload your data to your insurance company .001 seconds after your impact. Cameras will watch you drive and record what you were doing when driving. Cars can be shutdown, hacked, patched, hacked again, and like doinw MS Windows Update you're putting all your trust in the dealership and their "software updates". I'm all for heated seats and remote starters but there's a lemon book for a reason and the technology "glitches" of the future will be far worse than a 1990 honda idle surge issue.

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              #7
              I have mixed thoughts.

              One I don't think they're gonna roll the technology out if it's not ready. The liability is too high. Plus people forget there is already a lot of car control tech already in place. When have you ever heard of anyone dying from malfunctioning traction control or ABS?

              Two I don't think it's gonna kill human driven cars. There is just too big of a market for stuff like Mustangs and 911s. Auto manufacturer lobbies are powerful.

              Thirdly I don't think autonomous cars will be the death of human driven cars. Logistically it's just impossible; the govt cannot mandate that everyone replace their human driven cars with autonomous ones overnight. There would be blood in the streets. It will take time which means the autonomous cars will have to work with human driven ones, as well as all the other obstacles on the road.

              Personally I find discussions about autonomous cars fatiguing because people who don't like it exaggerate like crazy. Did someone here really say not being able to drive would take away all they have to live for? Come on man we are just talking cars here. Most people's interaction with cars is awful.... sitting in traffic, waiting at the dealership for a loaner or a bill; haggling over prices. It's a PITA. The CHOICE of not having to own or drive a car while still being able to get around would be a huge benefit for most people.


              Originally posted by lordoja
              im with you on that one bro! aint nothing beat free food and drinks any day of the week, even if its at a funeral

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                #8
                Originally posted by verothacamaro View Post
                We're being told autonomy is the next big evolution of the automobile (next to electrification) and every automaker is starting to pour sizable sums into the R&D of this technology.

                The older I get, the more cynical I am becoming. I am starting to be a technology skeptic, predicting that our interconnectedness is more a liability than an asset.

                Autonomy is one of these technological ideas that has me conflicted. I am a car enthusiast to the bone and love driving my moderately powerful MANUAL car, but I know I won't be able to do this forever and autonomy has the potential to give renewed freedom to individuals that can't or probably shouldn't be driving. From the disabled to the elderly (and even our children), autonomy can be a life changing technology.

                How much of this technology are you willing to embrace?

                What criteria do you want achieved before you'll trust an autonomous vehicle?

                What are your thoughts?
                You're in good company... I dare say there isn't an enthusiast out there who hasn't thought/felt the same things you've stated. It's a Faustian bargain where we give up so much for possibly far less.

                I too have thought the exact same things you mention and honestly I don't think there is any clear answer. Being old enough to have attended the '64 NY Worlds fair when I was 10 I too was seduced by the GM Futurama exhibit where the idea of automated highways seemed attainable, cool and very desirable. Of course at that time it was all based on "future tech" which could mean anything to make it work.

                Fast forward almost 60 years and now we realize the path chosen for the technology involves far less "autonomy" and far more control and oversight. The older I get the more conspiracies I see too. All the data mining and monitoring of our activities, all the erosion of our privacy and ultimately all the control we have over our destiny is slowly being replaced by the illusion of progress and substituted with surveillance and loss of freedom. Perhaps to current and upcoming generations this won't seem so bad since they may not know of any other way of life. How's that old Joni Mitchell song go? "...you don't know what you've got till it's gone..."

                I think it will take at least 20 years or more for full integration of autonomous cars to replace the majority of the current fleet of vehicles given the current used car is approximately 11.2 years old. Maybe longer if predictions of new car sales growth continue to slow especially in light of so many younger generations who still rather not own a car. After that who knows.

                What may accelerate this is the possibility of marginalizing older "analog cars" such as ours. For example, Washington state (and others) has been toying with the idea of replacing car pool lanes re-purposing them to (toll imposed) AI lanes for AV early adopters. Eventually these lanes will expand as time and need arise ultimately leading to either one or no lanes for older (non AV) cars. In the end analog cars may end up being banned altogether from anything but private or secondary roads or limited to only special events by permit who knows?

                What worries me is what happens if one of those scenarios that manufactures claim can "never happen" happens? Like when multiple component failures lead to a multi-vehicle collision where the only outcome is at least one possible fatality. Whose algorithm gets to play God and decide who is expendable?

                Or let's say an individual "passenger" in an AV suffers a massive heart attack in gridlock traffic, is less than 5 minutes from a hospital and has only minutes to live. Will the AV have an emergency protocol to break the law, jeopardize other vehicles and passengers by driving illegally over sidewalks and around barriers to rescue one person? You get the idea... I don't know or think all these potential issues have been explored yet so who knows.

                BTW just this morning I was watching Cnet report from the NAIAS where they were talking about the number of sensors used currently on most cars on the road and it's how expected to grow exponentially in the next few years. That got me thinking about the movie Skyfall where James Bond chooses the DB5 to stay off the grid. Perhaps we should keep ours around long after... just in case.

                Any thoughts on this for a personalized plate?
                CB7NOAI
                Last edited by hiptech; 01-16-2018, 09:08 PM.
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                  #9
                  Originally posted by gloryaccordy View Post
                  I have mixed thoughts.

                  Two I don't think it's gonna kill human driven cars. There is just too big of a market for stuff like Mustangs and 911s. Auto manufacturer lobbies are powerful.

                  Thirdly I don't think autonomous cars will be the death of human driven cars. Logistically it's just impossible; the govt cannot mandate that everyone replace their human driven cars with autonomous ones overnight. There would be blood in the streets. It will take time which means the autonomous cars will have to work with human driven ones, as well as all the other obstacles on the road.

                  Personally I find discussions about autonomous cars fatiguing because people who don't like it exaggerate like crazy. Did someone here really say not being able to drive would take away all they have to live for? Come on man we are just talking cars here. Most people's interaction with cars is awful.... sitting in traffic, waiting at the dealership for a loaner or a bill; haggling over prices. It's a PITA. The CHOICE of not having to own or drive a car while still being able to get around would be a huge benefit for most people.
                  I don't think the Government would go so far as to mandate turning in old vehicles, they wouldn't have to. All they'd have to do is make it prohibitively expensive to operate (legally) an older vehicle. They could push registration prices up and finagle all kinds of legal hoops that real car owners would have to jump through to operate their vehicles on public roads. They could also make certain roads or highways automated vehicles only. As far as "taking away all that one has to live for" I believe that is a gross overstatement of what I ineptly tried to say (which is my fault). I do believe that autonomous cars will kill ALL fun in driving as they can be programmed to not exceed any speed limits and would likely not be able to cope with the necessary driver inputs needed on a track.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by verothacamaro View Post
                    How much of this technology are you willing to embrace?

                    What criteria do you want achieved before you'll trust an autonomous vehicle?

                    What are your thoughts?
                    All of the technology. I would love a car that drives itself. I would love a car to mod that CAN drive itself. I said this in another thread, but I'm pretty sure the carb guys said similar things about efi. It's come full circle again. Think about how much time people waste commuting everyday. Usually an hour or more per day where I live. An autonomous car affords you the freedom to do something else besides sit in traffic or drive long trips by yourself.

                    I would have to supervise the vehicle in certain areas situations and be able regain control instantly for me to feel safe and to trust it.

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                      #11
                      Originally posted by Bunta View Post
                      I don't think the Government would go so far as to mandate turning in old vehicles, they wouldn't have to. All they'd have to do is make it prohibitively expensive to operate (legally) an older vehicle. They could push registration prices up and finagle all kinds of legal hoops that real car owners would have to jump through to operate their vehicles on public roads. They could also make certain roads or highways automated vehicles only. As far as "taking away all that one has to live for" I believe that is a gross overstatement of what I ineptly tried to say (which is my fault). I do believe that autonomous cars will kill ALL fun in driving as they can be programmed to not exceed any speed limits and would likely not be able to cope with the necessary driver inputs needed on a track.
                      The govt can already do this with old cars, and yet they don't. Why would it be any different with autonomous cars? This is the bit that frustrates me about discussions about autonomous cars.... all precedent goes out the window, and all possibilities seem to come out of thin air. Regardless of how folks feel about govt right now they are still pretty responsive in the US; a mandate like this that nobody wants which would cost a shitload would get scuttled pretty quickly.

                      And this isn't even getting into the simple logistical issues. Say "the govt" did essentially ban human driven cars. Auto manufacturers don't have the production capacity to replace the 300 million vehicles in the US overnight, or in a year, or even in a decade. We need to stop panicking and actually think through each step of this transition rather than just pulling the worst case scenarios out of thin air (or elsewhere).

                      There's also the issue of the conditions that have people excited about autonomous cars. Let's face facts.... the average US driver, commute and road sucks. Drivers are more and more distracted and less and less equipped with skills to deal with road conditions. Commutes are getting longer and longer due to traffic. And our infrastructure is falling apart. Is it any wonder people are growing to hate driving more and more? If folks are scared of the autonomous car they need to address the issues that prompt people to want them in the first place.

                      Personally I am agnostic. I like driving, mainly because I'm good at it and have a nice and easy commute. But I also get my enjoyment of cars via other means, be it through karting, sim racing or other means that don't involve driving on public roads. I lived without a car for many years and didn't die. People are blowing it all way out of proportion.


                      Originally posted by lordoja
                      im with you on that one bro! aint nothing beat free food and drinks any day of the week, even if its at a funeral

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                        #12
                        ^ That said (*ed. - to sonik, sorry), I don't see what's wrong with taking a bus. Bus infrastructure has been developing in my area (a neighboring city built a bus-only road along a train track that runs the length of the town) and Denver's been getting more light rails. Public transportation needs to develop further, in a way that makes sense with how spread out this country is. Many businesses these days, grocery stores included, offer home delivery as well to help with the issue of getting large loads home.
                        Last edited by CyborgGT; 01-17-2018, 10:01 AM.

                        Accord Aero-R

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                          #13
                          As is, with fixed routes, public transportation just can't work for much of the country. There's just too much sprawl and people going to different places at different times.

                          Autonomous cars + ride sharing could actually solve that. That's actually one thing I see being a huge change- I thing "mobility services" will kill a lot (but not all) of car ownership. Why pay insurance, deal with maintenance and the whole pain of buying and selling cars, when for a small wait you can just get a ride whereever you need to go? If you plan ahead there would be no wait, and all the "but what abouts!" I've heard (i.e. privacy, cleanliness, safety etc) would be addressed through competition. Nobody int he business wants a reputation for having dirty or unsafe cars so they'd find ways to fix that. And just like with human driven cabs or hell just having your own car, if you want a private ride you can pay a premium.

                          There's also how it would affect home design and urban planning. There's a LOT of space and money wasted on parking. If cars could park themselves we wouldn't store them right in the middle of dense city centers.

                          Thinking through each step and issue seems to yield pretty simple solutions from my POV
                          Last edited by gloryaccordy; 01-17-2018, 10:24 AM.


                          Originally posted by lordoja
                          im with you on that one bro! aint nothing beat free food and drinks any day of the week, even if its at a funeral

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by sonikaccord View Post
                            All of the technology. I would love a car that drives itself. I would love a car to mod that CAN drive itself. I said this in another thread, but I'm pretty sure the carb guys said similar things about efi. It's come full circle again. Think about how much time people waste commuting everyday. Usually an hour or more per day where I live. An autonomous car affords you the freedom to do something else besides sit in traffic or drive long trips by yourself.

                            I would have to supervise the vehicle in certain areas situations and be able regain control instantly for me to feel safe and to trust it.

                            Ya you're right actually. I'd own a car for driving on my own and it would be soooo fun! But then I'll use my auto car to drive me to work, wherever that is and however long it is. I can sit back and play Carmageddon or something, or get some work done. It would be my own personal bus. Sure I may have to take over when we get to the city but make a highway just for these cars. Because my drive to work is 30min one way in the summer on the best day, 1 hour in the summer on an average day. And in the winter it's 2 hours freaking hours!! Because of idiot drivers who don't shovel snow off their car, don't signal, are too nervous and drive 10mph. On the weekends some days I visit clients far away and it's 6 hours of driving per day.

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                              #15
                              Get driven to work in an RC car, and get McDonalds delivered by a drone.

                              I think the government can make a LOT of money off this technology. Buy the “cars” and use apps to bank on private yet public transportation. It’ll put other businesses out, but damn there is some $$$ to be had. Imagine riding to work in a white, electric bubble Marta vehicle with a built in Keurig.

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