The Death of Human-Driven Automobiles

[Size9zombie]

Glory, they'd buy them if they could afford them. If all anyone cared about was an affordable way to get around, the world would be full of one-owner 300k+ mile cars, and America would have better public transportation. There's a reason people with the means keep up within the latest two or three generations of a car, no matter its position in the market.

And zombie, I know several autonomous cars and 'flying' cars already exist. I meant "real thing" as in being available to, and importantly adopted by, the masses. Gimmicks aren't a "real thing" in my intended context.

I don't see them as being a "real thing adopted by the masses" anytime soon, except maybe in big cities where people are in stop and go traffic all the time.

[CyborgGT]

I'm just more in favor of finding ways to make public transportation work for America's spread-out way of life, and think it's wasteful to take it down to an individual scale by making autonomous cars.

[gloryaccordy]

Unfortunately, the only realistic way to make public transportation work across America's spread out landscape would be through autonomous vehicles. Fixed routes just don't jive with sprawl. You need high population density most of America just doesn't have.

With autonomous vehicles, you could ditch fixed routes and the hassle of people having to get from their homes to a train/bus stop and just have it pick them up. You could have people car pool with people they know. You'd be able to eliminate a lot of parking and traffic. Etc. That would work way better with American sprawl than trying to force conventional fixed route public transportation.

As for everyone having 300K+ one owner cars, the bulk of people buying cars in the US buy used. I think used cars make up 3/4 of the car purchases every year. So to a degree people are definitely thinking more practically, with used car inventory obviously being driven and created by whatever is bought new.

Even with new car purchases, stating that everyone who buys new wants to "keep up appearances" is a bit silly. Some people want a car with a warranty, some people don't want a car with 300K miles of someone else's sweat and farts, some people just prefer newer cars. Do you really think someone who buys a new Corolla is trying to impress anybody? Lol.

There is a lot of fear, judgment and conjecture in this discussion and not much fact or logic. Bottom line autonomous cars, implemented in a way that the public will accept, will have more positives than negatives for everybody..... and in any case, they are much farther off from hitting any kind of mainstream tipping point than anyone here fears.

[CyborgGT]

Do you really think someone who buys a new Corolla is trying to impress anybody? Lol.

... yes. Lol. Pull up at an imaginary light, to find a '92 Corolla and a '15 Corolla sitting next to each other. What are your immediate assumptions going to be? Something along the lines of the one working a close-to-minimum-wage job and the other somewhere solid in the middle-class, right? Whether they're correct assumptions or not, they exist. Humans are materialistic. To "impress" doesn't necessarily mean to do it to the utmost. Shit, I've had the most random people in the most un-enthusiast cars compliment my sixteen year old RSX, with its many little dents, aging paint, and mods that even I have reservations about sometimes - but the fact is there are things about the car that make it stand out a good bit from the mundane, and yet it's still a cheap old Honda. It's all a matter of perspective. But as you say, I'm getting beside the point.

I'm not against autonomous cars. I don't believe they'll become mainstream anytime soon, and I don't believe the option to drive myself will ever be taken from me. If anything, I see electric cars, and the autonomy that will surely only use that platform, as a means to secure oil-dependent vehicles for those of us that want to keep them around. It's just that they're a hot topic right now, so naturally my mind's going in a dozen different directions trying to guess how they would go about fitting into my world.

[gloryaccordy]

... yes. Lol. Pull up at an imaginary light, to find a '92 Corolla and a '15 Corolla sitting next to each other. What are your immediate assumptions going to be? Something along the lines of the one working a close-to-minimum-wage job and the other somewhere solid in the middle-class, right? Whether they're correct assumptions or not, they exist. Humans are materialistic. To "impress" doesn't necessarily mean to do it to the utmost. Shit, I've had the most random people in the most un-enthusiast cars compliment my sixteen year old RSX, with its many little dents, aging paint, and mods that even I have reservations about sometimes - but the fact is there are things about the car that make it stand out a good bit from the mundane, and yet it's still a cheap old Honda. It's all a matter of perspective. But as you say, I'm getting beside the point.

I think you are projecting your own preconceptions of car owners as their actual intentions. What you assume about me based on my appearance/clothes/car has nothing to do with who I actually am or why I do what I do

I know a millionaire who just traded his new M3 for a 4Runner. He drives like 3 miles to work and is not a track buff or aggressive driver. The conversation (on another forum) that ensued was hilarious... people suggesting he was facing financial hardships, he was a "poser", this and that.... all external. He just did what he thought was best

Sure, some people buy cars to impress other people. I'm guilty. It bums me out to tell people I drive a "Kia" instead of an "Infiniti". But it's silly to assume everyone on the road with a decent car is doing the same. Most people just want reliable transportation.

I'm not against autonomous cars. I don't believe they'll become mainstream anytime soon, and I don't believe the option to drive myself will ever be taken from me. If anything, I see electric cars, and the autonomy that will surely only use that platform, as a means to secure oil-dependent vehicles for those of us that want to keep them around. It's just that they're a hot topic right now, so naturally my mind's going in a dozen different directions trying to guess how they would go about fitting into my world.

I think this is a more productive attitude. Remember, when all else fails, follow the money. "Mobility" is going to wreck the auto industry- if you're hailing a ride who cares what kind of car it is? So they're going to fight tooth and nail to keep some population of human drivers on the road.

And again the tech is so far off being ready for prime time anyone speaking to how imminent the change will be is trying to sell something. I think there's a lot of cool stuff that can come from autonomous cars entering the marketplace, but everyone seems more keen to go into a panic or use them as a launching point for judgment and politics rather than looking at the actual changes that will come.

[sonikaccord]

Humans are materialistic. To "impress" doesn't necessarily mean to do it to the utmost. Shit, I've had the most random people in the most un-enthusiast cars compliment my sixteen year old RSX, with its many little dents, aging paint, and mods that even I have reservations about sometimes - but the fact is there are things about the car that make it stand out a good bit from the mundane, and yet it's still a cheap old Honda. It's all a matter of perspective. But as you say, I'm getting beside the point.

Hate this mentality. Even in my 15 year old BMW, people think I'm doing well because I drive a decent looking car with terribly painted wheels, rock chips, a window that doesn't roll down, and a "badge." I just bought it because it's an enthusiast's car without the ///M tax.

Buses can be autonomous as well...I think that's where we will start seeing true autonomy first, or the trucking and hauling industry. If you can delete the cabin from an 18 wheeler, you can put tons of batteries/hydrogen/LNG and haul 24 hours a day. They can be programmed much more easily for their usage than a standard passenger car. This would "save" the mobility industry more than anything.

[gloryaccordy]

I think there is a sweet spot of the minimum amount of energy spent per person in an autonomous fleet... with everyone leaving from and going to different places, buses will probably be a thing of the past outside of huge dense cities and for school buses.

[owequitit]

Again more exaggeration. By this logic human driven cars would have to be outlawed before we'd know that autonomous cars worked. How would you see that going over? Realistically + logistically autonomous cars will have to coexist with human drivers for quite some time before such a ban could even be considered feasible, and in any case there is enough money to be made with human driven cars that the auto industry wouldn't let that happen.

Autonomous cars will probably make ownership of cars a thing of the past for most people, turning mobility into a commodity for most and eroding a lot of the profit for the auto industry.... so high margin segments associated with human drivers like performance cars and pickup trucks will definitely remain. The aftermarket also highly depends on people who own and drive their cars so they will have a dog in the fight too. Not to mention the millions of voters and taxpayers who want to continue driving. This chicken little woe is me view of autonomous cars is tiring.

I deal with automation daily. Pretty familiar with it. It also happens to be right at the intersection of my safety Master's training, as well as in my experiential wheel house, so you will forgive me, but you are downplaying the requirements.

As we are currently seeing with several *ahem*, automated cars, the systems have major operational issues when surrounded in a real world driving environment.

There is no woe is me or pitty party about AI. What there is is a functional understanding about how automation works, what factors are involved and how automation works successfully when it works successfully.

Cars are a long way off of L5 autonomy and when they finally do get there, I just about guarantee that the amount of driving a regular person an do will be little to none, and it most likely won't be on the same infrastructure as the L5 cars.

Case in point, take any automated or manually run mass transit system and how many other uncontrolled people do you have running around? Trains? None. Airplanes? Only in extremely remote parts of the airspace where there is a virtually 0 chance of having air carrier operations. Subways? None.